Public Nuisance

Random commentary and senseless acts of blogging.

The first Republican president once said, "While the people retain their virtue and their vigilance, no administration by any extreme of wickedness or folly can seriously injure the government in the short space of four years." If Mr. Lincoln could see what's happened in these last three-and-a-half years, he might hedge a little on that statement.
-Ronald Reagan

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Tuesday, November 05, 2002
 
Final Predictions

I'm going with pretty much the calls I made in earlier posts.

Senate: Democratic pickups in New Hampshire, Arkansas, and Colorado. Republican pickup in Missouri. South Dakota stays Democratic. Democrats win one from my list of possible upsets: Tennessee, Texas, N Carolina, S Carolina, Maine - most likely Texas. No other seats switch.

House: Democrats pick up 2 seats, leaving the House at 221-213-1. I pretty much pulled that number out of thin air, but if it turns out to be right, I reserve the right to assert that it was based on detailed study of individual races matched with my profound understanding of political trends.

Governor: Democrats take away or pick up Arizona, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. Republicans pick up New Hampshire, Alabama, and Vermont. Net result, D - 29 R -21. This is a little less optimistic than I had projected earlier, but it looks like Republicans will hold on in Texas, Florida, and Arkansas. If the night goes badly, there are other possible losses in South Carolina, Alaska, and Hawaii, but I'm calling those seats to stay Democratic.

In my home state, I predicted months ago that Davis would equal his landslide margin (about 16%) of 1998. That prediction now looks bad, but I stand by a Davis victory and don't think it will be especially close. I called a Democratic sweep of the statewide offices last month and I stand by that one, although as I mentioned Republican Controller candidate Tom McClintock has a shot at breaking the shutout. Democrats will also easily control both houses of the state legislature. The only real question is whether Republicans will hold enough seats to sustain a veto, and I think they will. Democrats will take the open Congresssional seat in the 18th District, Gary Condit's old seat, and will win the new redistricting seat. Not one incumbent from either party is going to lose, or even have to stay up late. The protection of incumbents in the state redistricting plan is a disgrace.



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