Random commentary and senseless acts of blogging.
The first Republican president once said, "While the people retain their virtue and their vigilance, no administration by any extreme of wickedness or folly can seriously injure the government in the short space of four years." If Mr. Lincoln could see what's happened in these last three-and-a-half years, he might hedge a little on that statement.
Prisoners of Azkaban
Thursday, August 07, 2003
The story is getting wild now - with Arnold confounding the expectations of myself and almost everybody else that he wouldn't run, Democrats clearly felt it was time to bring out the big guns. Hours later, Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante announced he is running.
Now the key question is how many other prominent Democrats will join Bustamante on the ballot. The party leadership would presumably prefer that Bustamante be there alone. As Lieutenant Governor he is a logical sucessor, and if he is the only major Democrat in the race he will be very hard to beat. Also, the party leadership likes the idea of Bustamante at the top of the ticket; it is assumed that his presence will bring hispanic voters to the polls who, while they are there, will vote for the rest of the party ticket. And a hispanic, Democratic Governor of California certainly doesn't hurt in the attempt to keep the growing national hispanic vote in the Democratic party.
Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez has been talking about running, but the presence of another prominent hispanic Democrat on the ballot may keep her out. Attorney General Bill Lockyer and Treasurer Phil Angelides were both preparing for possible runs in 2006; if Bustamante wins, they'll have to wait for 2010. My guess is that with the ice broken, at least one other name Democrat wil run. It's a reasonable choice because, unlike a regular election, a Congressman or elected official can take a shot without risking their current job. And, in this chaos, they just might win.
Arianna Huffington has now also declared that she is running. This may or may not mean that her ex-husband Michael is out. With Arnold in, I think Michael's chance of actually winning have gone from slim to would-be-none-except-that-this-whole-scene-is-so-nutty.
And with Hollywood's most beefy celebrity now in the race, there is a clear opening for one of Tinseltown's least muscular celebs.
My early call: if Bustamante is the only big-name Democrat on the ballot, he's a near-certain winner. Under most circumstances, Bustamante rather than Schwarzenegger will be the favorite.