Random commentary and senseless acts of blogging.
The first Republican president once said, "While the people retain their virtue and their vigilance, no administration by any extreme of wickedness or folly can seriously injure the government in the short space of four years." If Mr. Lincoln could see what's happened in these last three-and-a-half years, he might hedge a little on that statement.
Prisoners of Azkaban
Monday, December 29, 2003
Clark Gaining in NH
The first ARG daily tracking poll for NH is out. Here's how it compares to a poll taken about two weeks back:
Dean 37 (45)
Kerry 19 (20)
Clark 12 (8)
Lieb 6 (6)
Gep 4 (3)
Edwa 3 (2)
Clark is rising; Kerry dropping. (The one point in this poll is meaningless, but a longer term trend clearly shows that Kerry's numbers are dropping, both for NH and nationally.) I still expect those lines to cross before the actual primary.
Dean's number's suggest that part of his post-Gore surge may have been a temporary bump that is now settling down. Some national numbers point in the same direction, but it's too early to know.
Dean supporters like to talk about a 30 point win in NH, or getting to over 50%, but remember: the favorite almost always does worse than expected here. I look for a strong 2nd by Clark, even an outside chance he could win.