Random commentary and senseless acts of blogging.
The first Republican president once said, "While the people retain their virtue and their vigilance, no administration by any extreme of wickedness or folly can seriously injure the government in the short space of four years." If Mr. Lincoln could see what's happened in these last three-and-a-half years, he might hedge a little on that statement.
Prisoners of Azkaban
Friday, January 16, 2004
Latest NH Tracking
Dean 28% (29%)
Clark 23% (24%)
Kerry 16% (15%)
Lieb 7% (7%)
Clark droipped one today after jumping two yesterday, which indicates that Thurday's numbers were shockingly bad for Clark. Dean fell 3, from 32 to 29, yesterday, which indicates that Wednesday's numbers were appalling for Dean. It remains to be seen whether one or both of these war a statistical fluke, quite possible in one day numbers for this type of poll. (The MOE for a single day's polling is 7%.)
Kerry continues to bounce back from what looked recently from like complete catastrophe. Only a few days ago Kerry was in danger of falling to fourth or fifth. Today, he could conceivably win in NH should he win in Iowa, and the latest polls suggest that is quite possible. After being given up for dead by everyone, Kerry could potentially become frontrunner in the next 12 days. That would be quite a wild twist.
ARG says the reason is that Clark is still a difficult sell for women. Dean is weakening and men leaving Dean are going to Clark - Clark and Dean are now in a statistical tie among men. But women leaving Dean are going largely to Kerry instead.