Public Nuisance

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The first Republican president once said, "While the people retain their virtue and their vigilance, no administration by any extreme of wickedness or folly can seriously injure the government in the short space of four years." If Mr. Lincoln could see what's happened in these last three-and-a-half years, he might hedge a little on that statement.
-Ronald Reagan

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Thursday, July 15, 2004
 
The most recent polling of swing states, done by Zogby, looks extremely positive. He shows Bush leading in 3 states, but in 2 of those, NV and AR, there are substantial Nader and undecided votes that may well erase Bush's small margin. In fact, when looking at state by state counts such as this, remember they all tend currently to understate Kerry's chances, because the undecided vote is almost certain to break for him, and by historical trends it's also likely that a significant percentage of Nader supporters will. Overall, the current count of swing states looks roughly like this:

  • Comfortable Bush lead: WV (5 EV)
  • Mild Bush lead: None
  • Too close to call: NV, AR, TN, OH (42)
  • Mild Kerry lead: MO, IA, MN (28)
  • Comfortable Kerry lead: FL, MI, NH, NM, OR, WA, WI, PA (94)
In other words, Kerry is now in the driver's seat for a solid majority of swing state EV, with a chance of pulling a near sweep. That's what I believe is going to happen; my own feeling is that the country has decided that it doesn't want Bush, and Kerry, with a solid performance in the campaign and especially the debates, can close the deal and win going away.

The only bad news in the latest polling had been that NC, even with Edwards, had appeared uncompetitive. But a new poll changes even that and shows Kerry/Edwards within striking distance in Tarheel territory. Another Gallup poll shows Bush up by 15 among LV in NC, but only by 7 among RV. Given the motivation of the Democratic base in this election, that large LV adjustment is very likely to be wrong. There's an interesting argument that NC is not only winnable in this election but likely to remain a swing state here.


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