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Random commentary and senseless acts of blogging.
The first Republican president once said, "While the people retain their virtue and their vigilance, no administration by any extreme of wickedness or folly can seriously injure the government in the short space of four years." If Mr. Lincoln could see what's happened in these last three-and-a-half years, he might hedge a little on that statement. Blog critics Gryffindor House Slytherin House Ravenclaw House House Elves Beth Jacob Prisoners of Azkaban Muggles
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Sunday, February 29, 2004
More Gay Marriage There has been endless discussion recently of whether the 'full faith and credit' clause requires states to accept gay marriages performed elsewhere. What is odd about this is that nobody ever discusses precedents, but it is very hard to believe they don't exist. For 80 years, interracial marriage was illegal in much of the country, but legal, if rare, in most states. Surely some sort of of test cases are out there. Lord of the Oscars Congratulations to the cast and crew of Return of the Kings, which swept tonght's Academy Awards, along with the good people of New Zealand who seemed, from the acceptance speeches, to have been collective co-producers on the trilogy. The awards were well deserved - the final episode was superb and the total series is a genuine epic, without a doubt one of the greatest movies ever made. According to the announcer on tonight's show, the 11 awards for RotK ties it with Ben Hur and Titanic; of those three it is by far the best. I was disappointed to see Rene Zellwegger win for her overly showy performance in Cold Mountain. I would have much preferred Marcia Gay Harden or Christina Ricci, who wasn't even nominated. I also felt a touch of disappointment at Sean Penn's victory. His win was deserved and overdue, but it means that Bill Murray, who, unlike Penn, rarely gets a shot at genuinely interesting roles, has lost out on the best chance he is ever likely to have.
I also have to congratulate Sofia Coppola. Coppola was still a teenager when she became famous for playing Al Pacino's daughter in the failed 3rd film of the Godfather trilogy. Her reviews were deservedly brutal. The temptation to become a recluse or a career heavy drinker after such an early and unpleasant introduction to celebrity must have been overwheming. Instead, Ms Coppola continued to work in the family business, directed a quite decent movie (The Virgin Suicides, 1999) and has now written and directed a minor masterpiece.
In the other traditional event, the evening gown competition, it's hard to choose a single winner. Angelina Jolie, Jennifer Garner, Catherine Zeta Jones, and Julia Roberts were among many who I thought looked spectacular. The most noteworthy fashion victim of the evening was Uma Thurman. Owen Wilson and Ben Stiller won for lamest tacky promotion of an upcoming movie that is likely to be lamer still. Wednesday, February 18, 2004
I admit to being rather startled at the long lines of gays racing to the San Francisco City Hall to obtain marriage licenses that, almost certainly, are issued in violation of California law and not worth the paper they're printed on. After all, civil unions have been legal in Vermont for years, and marriages will probably be legal later this year in Massachusetts. But for quite a few mere civil unions don't seem to be a meaningful substitute for actual marriage. The domestic urge does seem to make a bit of a mockery of the arguments of rightists (and many gays) that gay liberation is a radical force out to undermine bourgeois culture. I noted below that Drudge's quote of Clark, like almost all the rest of his Kerry sex smear, seems to be inacurrate. The Howler has the details of the statement that I noted having seen, which was on Fox News Sunday: CONNOLLY: You know, what, though? That?s not accurate. That?s not accurate. That?s the way that Drudge reported that supposed off-the-record conversation. But I?ve spoken to reporters who were there, and that?s not even what General Clark accused. It was something far more peripheral, and it was pinned to a tabloid. This statement, however, comes from Ceci Connolly, a 'journalist' who has accomplished the rare distinction of having not much more credibility than Drudge. A further and much more reliable confirmation comes from Ryan Lizza at TNR. Tuesday, February 17, 2004
God is Dead, or Maybe She's Just an A**hole Having this happen at all is bad enough, but for it to happen the same week that the Clark campaign died is further proof that life definitely sucks. Sleazeville Now that the Kerry rumor is dying out, it's instructive to look back and notice how little the media needs to go running off after a 'scandal'. Looking at the Drudge piece that started it all, one striking point shows up: even Drudge doesn't come right out and say an affair took place. Instead, he says that several named high-profile news outlets are investigating the story. But Hesiod, who has had some solid coverage, notes that Drudge's actual story, that major media were investigating the rumor, is denied on the record by several of those Drudge names. The other claim by Drudge, that Clark said Kerry was about to implode in an intern scandal, was clearly an attempt to imply that Democrats were behind the story. The very fact that it showed up on Drudge meant this spin is probably fake, furthermore, Drudge's citation of Clark also was described as inaccurate in a talking heads gabfest I saw last weekend - sorry, I didn't take down details. Drudge's statement that Polier had 'fled the country' also is dramatized at best, and the claim that it was at the behest of the Kerry camp looks like yet another fiction. Certainly there is no support for the allegation whatsoever. (You need a visa to visit Kenya. Certainly to be safe, you need inoculations that require some advance scheduling - the CDC recommends at least four weeks in advance. So it's a very unlikely destination for travel undertaken at the last minute just to get away from the media.)
John Ellis strongly implies that the whole thing comes from a woman with a huge grudge against Kerry who has been shopping this and other anti-Kerry stories around for a while. This looks like another attempt to wipe the whole thing clean of any Karl Rove/RNC fingerprints.
In conclusion, there seems to be nothing there at all. The probable source of the allegation is a single anonymous individual with no particular credibility. The people involved have denied the story. The woman's parents are publicly supportive of Kerry; the widely published claim that the father called Kerry a 'sleazeball' - printed in a disreputable rght wing Murdoch tab, but widely and uncritically repeated - also look to be phony. And yet this nothing was still substantive enough to dominate a large portion of the media for several news cycles - on Valentine's day, just for the irony. Friday, February 13, 2004
Be Careful What You Ask For... The primary schedule was set up to provide a clear nominee as quickly as possible, and it has succeeded in that goal. By Feb 11, only two serious candidates for the nomination remained standing, and one of those is on very wobbly legs indeed. Is this actually desirable? Almost certainly not. The now apparent nominee emerged as the frontrunner less than a month ago and has not been seriously tested. It is unclear how much primary voters know about him or his positions. He has been subjected to nothing remotely like the attacks that will come once he is the official nominee. Voters say that they think him the most electable candidate, but there seems to be little grounds for that judgement. There is precedent, however - Jonathan Chait reminds us that Republican primary voters in 2000 believed, absurdly, that George Bush was more electable than John McCain.
Equally absurd is the contention that, since Kerry has won some southern primaries, he can win southern states in November. Al Gore won huge primary landslides in almost all the former confederate states, sometimes with as much as 80% of the vote, but it didn't help him in November. So how does 50% in VA make Kerry a southern man?
Of course I am subject to sour grapes here, since my candidate was defeated. But it seems plain that Kerry simply hasn't endured the scrutiny a nominee should. Furthermore, the last month, the only real period when the public's attention has been focussed on the Democratic race, has been terrific for us and catastrophic for Bush. Another month of focus on that race, instead of the Bush/Kerry race, could only help. Kumentum Final results from Tennessee show that dropping out of the race didn't prevent both Lieberman and Mosley-Braun from beating Dennis Kucinich in the state. Kucinich did, however, manage to defeat Dick Gephardt. In an impressive display of strength, he actually defeated all the candidates who dropped out in Virginia. In spite of this, Kucinich will be invited to participate in this weekend's debate in Wisconsin, along with the equally irrelevant Al Sharpton and the just barely relevant Howard Dean. The DNC has wimped out of the threat to invite only serious candidates to debate after the Feb 3 primaries. Kevin Drum has been doing terrific work with some of the best blogging I've ever seen on the Bush National Guard story, analyzing documents and new developments, calling up figures involved, speaking to them, and giving their accounts in far more detail than the major media. This interview with Bill Burkett, who alleges that Bush's service records were cleansed in the 1990s while he was Governor of Texas, is especially noteworthy. Kevin is outperforming the professionals on this one, and that includes the big boys. Give the NY Times credit for running an extensive article on the topic, but the article contains some basic errors.
Mr. Bartlett denied on Wednesday that any records were altered. General James, since named head of the Air National Guard by President Bush, also denied Mr. Burkett's account. But Mr. Bartlett and another former official in Mr. Bush's administration in Texas, Joe Allbaugh, acknowledged speaking to National Guard officials about the files as Mr. Bush was preparing to seek re-election as governor. Dan Bartlett is one of those named by Burkett as involved in the whitewash. The Times accepts his statement as a denial, but, looking closely at Burkett's account as detailed by Kevin, it looks like a carefully phrased non-denial. Burkett charged that documents were discarded, while Bartlett denied the distinct (and unmade) allegation that documents were 'altered'. Something similar is true of the denial attributed to Joe Albaugh, who labels Burkett's story as 'hogwash', but confirms a few details with appropriate spin while not denying any. Friday, February 06, 2004
Back From the Trail I suspended blogging to spend a few days in Arizona working for Wesley Clark. It was a great trip - I had the opportunity to see Clark speak in Flagstaff on Sunday, after which I and other volunteers, along with Arizona voters, were able to talk to Clark during the Super Bowl. Chatting with Clark and being able to observe him chatting with others was a great experience, and confirmed me in the belief that I made the right choice. Clark is friendly and completely at ease talking to ordinary folks. He was polite to everyone, including the woman who tried to bend his ear with a lecture on agricultural policy and the faults of the official groups that represent farmers which would probably still be going on if he hadn't gently persuaded her to finish off and give others a chance who were waiting to talk to him. Unfortunately, the outcome of the election means there is little chance the Democratic Party will join me in picking the best man.
Kerry support was extremely weak in Northern Arizona. During the time I spent there, I never saw a Kerry button, yard sign, or bumper sticker, and never spoke to a single voter that really was committed to Kerry as a candidate. There was a strong local Clark campaign, and a significant presence of Dean volunteers, although Dean had no office in Northern Arizona. In walking precincts we often found that the Deanies had gone by leaving literature before us, but there was more support for Clark.
In spite of the lack of enthusiasm, Kerry won Coconino, Flagstaff's county, although by a small margin compared to the substantial margin he carried the state by. I think the amount of free media Kerry received, constantly being identified as the frontrunner and leader, caused people to simply climb on to the bandwagon without looking hard at who he is or his considerable vulnerabilities in a general election. The good news is that Bush has equal vulnerabilities. Although I think Clark would be both a better candidate and a better president, I believe Kerry has a solid chance of winning if he is the nominee, an outcome which now looks extremely probable. This blog will of course support Kerry should he be nominated; with all his flaws he is vastly better than George Bush. |
